Section 3: Correlation,
Predication, Confidence, and Errors
How did researchers learn that smoking causes lung cancer? The
process began with informal observations, as doctors noticed that a
surprisingly high proportion of their patients with lung cancer were smokers.
These observations led to carefully conducted studies in which researchers
compared lung cancer rates among smokers and nonsmokers. These studies showed
clearly that heavier smokers were more likely to develop lung cancer. In more
formal terms, we say that there is a correlation between the variables amount
of smoking and likelihood of lung cancer. A correlation is a special
type of relationship between variables, in which a rise or fall in one goes
along with a corresponding rise or fall in the other (Bennett, Briggs &
Triola, 2009). In this section, you will examine correlation, estimating
confidence, and margin of errors. You will also be introduced to prediction
through introductory regression analysis. This is important for anticipating results
in research, and in many other areas of life.
Required Reading
Please refer to the Activity
Resources section within each activity for required readings.
Assignment 6 Correlation and Causation in the News
Statistics are routinely used
by journalists to explain and support claims. The news media often uncritically
report on or even distort the findings of scientific studies. News articles
often confound correlation and causation and report that correlations show
causation when they actually do not. The difference between them is huge and
confusing them can be costly in terms of money and time. As you know from your
text, two variables may be correlated because one causes the other, a third
variable causes both, or because of coincidence.
Activity Resources
Activity Resources
- Review:
Bennett, J. O., Briggs, W. L., & Triola, M. F. (2014)., Chapter 8
- McCoy, K.
- Park, A. (2011, March 24).
- Rochman, B. (2011, April 11).
Main Task: Analyze
Statistics in the News
In your activity resources above are three news articles that report on scientific studies and make recommendations on the basis of them. Write a paper analyzing these articles. For each article answer these questions and give reasons for your answers:
In your activity resources above are three news articles that report on scientific studies and make recommendations on the basis of them. Write a paper analyzing these articles. For each article answer these questions and give reasons for your answers:
1.
What evidence does the article provide for an association
(correlation) between the phenomena discussed?
2.
Drawing on your text’s discussion of how to interpret
correlations, what would you want to check to be confident that there is
actually a correlation?
3.
What is the argument that the relationship is causal?
4.
Is the argument for the causal relationship convincing?
5.
If the argument is not convincing, what additional evidence is
needed to make a convincing argument that the relationship is causal?
6.
Does it make sense to make changes in your life based on the
article?
Support your paper with a
minimum of three (3) scholarly resources. In addition to these specified
resources, other appropriate scholarly resources, including older articles, may
be included.
Length: 5-7 pages not including title and reference pages
Your paper should demonstrate thoughtful consideration of the ideas and concepts that are presented in the course and provide new thoughts and insights relating directly to this topic. Your response should reflect scholarly writing and current APA standards. Be sure to adhere toNorthcentral University
Submit your document in the Course Work area below the Activity screen.
Learning Outcomes: 5, 11
Length: 5-7 pages not including title and reference pages
Your paper should demonstrate thoughtful consideration of the ideas and concepts that are presented in the course and provide new thoughts and insights relating directly to this topic. Your response should reflect scholarly writing and current APA standards. Be sure to adhere to
Submit your document in the Course Work area below the Activity screen.
Learning Outcomes: 5, 11
Assignment Outcomes
Compare and contrast various
aspects of descriptive data analysis and inferential data analysis. Analyze the
use and applicability of statistics in personal, professional, and academic
applications, and as a tool for research.
Sites for Required
Article
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